Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville Football Vs. Washington

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Louisville (8-4, 5-3 ACC) will take on Washington (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten) in the Sun Bowl on Tuesday, December 31 at 2:00 pm EST at the Sun Bowl. Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas. Here’s how the Cardinals stack up against the Huskies:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

	Washington	Louisville
AP/USAT	NO/NO	RV/RV
CFP	No.	No.
SAUCE	the 12th	28
SISTER	the 46th	25th
SP+	61	the 18th
FPI	the 45th	the 12th
Sagarin	the 47th	the 17th
Kelly Ford	the 49th	the 13th
CFB Insiders	41	the 11th

	Washington	Louisville
Total crime	68th place (383.7)	10th (455.8)
Yards per game	52nd place (5.96)	third (6.88)
Scoring offense	109th place (22.5)	9th (36.6)
Yards in passing	39th (252.3)	20 (272.4)
Yards per completion	113th place (10.97)	37th place (12.82)
Rushing Yards	93rd place (131.3)	37 (183.3)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	85th place (4.07)	9th (5.60)
First downs won	76th (248)	57th (261)
3rd Down Con. %	102nd place (36.4%)	74th place (39.7%)
4th Down Con. %	101st place (45.8%)	(116th (40.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	85th place (82.2%)	95th place (80.8%)
Lost turnover	19 (11)	19 (11)
Interceptions thrown	26 (7)	10th (6)
Fumbles Lost	15th (4)	30 (5)
Tackles for loss allowed	87th place (5.83)	19 (4.17)
Bags allowed	111th place (2.83)	23 (1.25)
Average Time of possession	66 (30:10)	73 (29:57)

Key: National ranking of 134 FBS teams (value)

	Washington	Louisville
Total defense	27 (324.8)	58th place (360.1)
Yards allowed per game	28 (5.00)	49th place (5.28)
Scoring defense	45th place (22.8)	52nd place (23.3)
Passing yards are allowed	5th (166.8)	80th (224.7)
Rush yards are allowed	83 (158.1)	43rd place (135.4)
First descents are allowed	69th (241)	40th (229)
Third-down defensive percentage	106th place (43.9%)	39th place (35.5%)
4th down defensive percentage	91st place (57.1%)	112th place (64.5%)
defensive % in the red zone	53rd place (81.0%)	63rd place (81.8%)
Earned turnover	91st place (14)	69th (16)
Interceptions caught	place 93 (8)	75th (9)
Fumbles Recovered	69th (6)	49th (7)
TFL per game	132nd place (3.6)	39th place (6.4)
Sacks per game	90th (1.67)	40th (2.42)

Key: National ranking of 134 FBS teams (value)

	Washington	Louisville
Net Punting	131st place (34.49)	109th place (36.74)
Average Kickoff Return	30 (22.42)	60th (20.53)
Average Kickoff Return Def.	92nd place (21.83)	24 (17.42)
Medium Return point	74th place (7.27)	106th place (5.13)
Mean Return Point Def.	126 (14.94)	31 (5.00)
Field goal attempts	18-26	18-25
BED	26-26	55-55

Key: National ranking of 134 FBS teams (value)

– FPI prediction: According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 74.8 percent chance to win against the Huskies. Louisville has an FPI rating of 16.4 (12th overall), while Washington has an FPI rating of 5.1 (45th overall).

– SP+ forecast: According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 76.89% chance of beating the Huskies. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 15.5 (18th overall), while Washington has a SP+ rating of 3.0 (61st overall).

– The Kelley Ford Prediction: According to Kelley Ford’s ratings, the Cardinals have a 73 percent chance to beat the Huskies. Louisville has a KFord rating of 16.5 (14th overall), while Washington has a KFord rating of 5.1 (48th overall).

– College Football Prediction: According to College Football Insiders’ IPR, the Cardinals have a 71.99% chance of beating the Huskies. Louisville has an IPR rating of 65.5 (11th overall), while Washington has an IPR rating of 53.5 (41st overall).

– Personal prediction: Louisville 28, Washington 24

(Photo via Jordan Prather – Imag Images)

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