China missed the climatic key target in 2024: Official data

BEIJING – China missed a key climate target in 2024, and emissions in the second largest economy in the world increased slightly, because coal remained dominant, despite renewable records, official data showed on February 28.

The figures mean that the largest transmitter in the world is outside a key commitment according to the Paris climate agreement, analysts said.

The National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing (NBS) said that the intensity of carbon, which measures carbon dioxide emissions that heats the planet on the gross domestic unit, decreased by 3.4 % in 2024-to an official objective of 3.9.

That put the country behind Its objective for an 18 % discount from 2020 to 2025.

The data showed that carbon emissions have increased slightly since 2024, although with much less previous jumps, because experts speculate if China could have reached peak emissions before a 2030 target.

However, the data showed that it will be “extremely difficult” for China to meet a commitment to reduce the carbon intensity by 65 % of the levels from 2005 to 2030, said Mr. Lauri Myllyvirta, the main analyst of the Center for Energy and Air Clean.

“Even with optimistic hypotheses for 2025, the intensity of carbon dioxide must decrease by 22 % in (period) 2026-2030 to fulfill the key target in China in Paris,” said Myllyvirta.

“This is a key test of China’s commitment to its commitments under the agreement.”

Coal to refuse

Despite the fact that it is the largest green -effect gases transmitter that leads climate change, China is also a renewable energy power plant.

Plans to male carbon emissions by 2030 and reach Net zero by 2060, and some analysts speculated that slowing growth and fast renewable installations would see emissions in 2024.

Determining a tip of emissions is likely to require a few years of data and will be possible only retrospect.

For now, growth in the China-hungry carbon industrial sector retains progress to its climatic objectives, said Mr. Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at Think-Tank Ember.

“The rapid industrial growth has determined the demand for energy to grow at a rate that exceeds the accumulation of clean energy infrastructure,” he told AFP.

Reforms such as increasing flexibility on the energy market and adding clean energy infrastructure are necessary to ensure the increase of industrial production “does not come to the detriment of a sustainable energy,” he added.

The total energy consumption increased by 4.3 % compared to that of 2023, the NBS report said.

Coal, a major source of carbon emissions, provided over half of the country’s energy, although the renewables also recorded a sharp jump in 2024.

“China is quickly approaching the stage where all the demand for incremental electricity will be satisfied with renewable sources,” said Yang.

Once this threshold is crossed and the new demand is covered by the solarium and other renewables, “the coal energy will begin to decrease in absolute terms.”

Beijing is about to announce details about the 15th plan for five years-for 2026-2030-later in 2025, probably including updated emissions and energy objectives.

In February, it was also due to present new emission targets, known as national contributions (NDC), in accordance with the Paris Agreement. The sending is meant to update its goals and details plans by 2035.

Like many countries, he missed this term, although UN officials said that most NDCs are expected to be submitted in 2025. AFP

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