Result February Season 2025: The Wrap

Stories with features | 17:11

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, editor

It almost hurts to believe that January has shown so much promise and optimism about what could still be for the new calendar year.

The Taurus market of about 15 months for actions, predominantly transported by AI and other stocks related to technology, plus banks (!), Seemed to become more inclusive, this time, pulling in delay and over the last two years in terms of RBA rate reductions and a background for the local corporate income cycle.

Even if we exclude the rumors and uncertainty of the US import tariffs that have affected the global financial markets in February and March, there is simply no escape that the local results have not been in accordance with expectations.

Companies that had fought to develop their business and margins over the previous years are still struggling and even with a relatively low bar for the season, exceeding the expectations of analysts have proven too much for many.

They do not do easier problems, those robust and trusted winners from previous years who have managed to launch solid operational performances, largely, saw the price of shares weakening behind, while the minds of investors were ready to find new winners, rather than to continue with those.

Thus, February turned quickly into an unpleasant challenge for many. On UbsThe numbers, the average volatility of the prices of the intra-ts shares during the month increased to 7%.

This is practically unknown, but it probably should not be surprised in the light of the wild punishments that result from companies, including AMP LTD ((AMP)), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank ((Ben)), Pizza lui Domino ((DMP)), Redox ((RDX)), Siteminder (SD), and a lot.

Data collected by Goldman Sachs It sounds even more dramatic, with 20% of all companies that report in February, which are facing a price movement of 10% or more on the day of the results. If the UBS number is unknown, which term should we use for Goldman Sachs’s assessment?

The results themselves proved slightly better than forecast, in balance, but did not stop the forecasts of the earnings with corporate Australia, who looks at the third year, successively for negative income per action (on average for ASX200).

Fnarena monitor With a healthier approach, taking into account also wider values ​​and prospective statements issued by companies, and at this approach the season has proved a little better than August last year, with an emphasis on “little”.

Two very important factors must be considered: first, August 2024 could have been the worst results in Fnarena’s history, returning in August 2013. Second, the bar increased slightly before the season, but it was still very low.

Unlike what could be suspected, a low bar does not translate by default in an easier challenge for Australian companies, because, of course, there are reasons why expectations are so low.

And this is exactly the conclusion from the results of February; Corporate Australia needs all the help and assistance it can get, including from the Federal, RBA, China and other parties.

Unfortunately, the Trump administration begins commercial wars through the import rates to almost everyone seems to the opposite of what could have ordered the proverbial doctor.

The key numbers for the February 2025 season look similar to those twelve months ago, with 32% of all results overcoming expectations, but by 33% decreasing. In comparison, August last year registered 27% beating forecasts and 37% disappointing. February last year he saw at least more “beats” than “misses”; 33% compared to 28%.

Strictly taken, this does this year not be as good as last year.

The numbers remain similar when comparing 49 rating updates and 57 discounts, with target prices in 3.72%aggregate, see the archive of the last 12 years on the website.

https://fnarena.com/index.php/past-corporate-sults-analysis/

Companies with a small lid have contributed a lot to disappointments, so if we restrict our number to the ASX200, we see beats, meetings and disappointments that align as about a third. This is exactly the result of twelve months ago.

---