The February commercial surplus in Indonesia exceeds expectations but risks being

(Jakarta) Indonesia recorded a larger commercial surplus than expected in February, led by an accentuated return of palm oil exports following a slow-2022 boom of goods, showed on Monday (March 17).

Its commercial surplus increased to about $ 3.1 billion last month, exceeding the forecast of Bloomberg economist of $ 2.2 billion. This extends the string of the country of consecutive commercial surpluses, which have remained uninterrupted since May 2020.

The growth of exports offers the country in Southeast Asia such a necessary impulse, because it tries to pass through the 5 %sticky growth barrier, together with the added perspective of a foreign exchange elevator before the April dividend season.

However, analysts warned that the prospects of global trade remain precarious, the potential turbulence on the horizon due to the unpredictable US trade policy under President Donald Trump.

Josua Parde, the main economist at Bank Permaata, forecast that the current account deficit of Indonesia will expand to a managing rate this year.

He attributed this to the robust internal demand, fueled by the government’s pro-increasing agenda, which is expected to increase imports. At the same time, exports can fight because of increasing commercial war tensions.

“We anticipate the current account deficit for 2025 to expand to 1.18 percent of the gross domestic product, because the ongoing commercial war is likely to exert an impact before.”

Exports in the resource -rich nation increased by about 14.1 percent in February, reaching nearly $ 22 billion. This was powered by a 90 % increase in the value of gross and refined palm oil, which increased to $ 2.3 billion.

Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, the head of the country’s statistics agency, said that exports of precious metals, jewelry and Nickel have seen a solid look. This has contributed to filling the gap left with a decrease of almost 20 percent of coal exports, caused by both the lower and lower volumes.

The largest Southeast Asia economy sent less coal in the first two months of 2025 to key trading partners, exports to China by decreasing by 18 % and India decreasing by 13 %.

Meanwhile, Indonesia imports in February have totaling about $ 18.9 billion, marking 2.3 percent from year to year. In particular, imports of cars and spare parts jumped 24 % compared to last year, reaching $ 920 million.

External risks weigh commercial surplus

Fisthra Faisal, a major economist at Samuel Sekuritas, stressed that the increased growth of exports was probably determined by a strong global demand for Indonesian goods and manufactured goods, coupled with a competitive rupture.

Looking forward, he warned that the sustainability of the commercial surplus in Indonesia remains uncertain. External risks and changes in internal demand could affect commercial flows this year.

“While exports had a strong start this year, the challenges follow. The softer global demand from key merchant partners, such as China, USA and Europe, could slow down exports, especially in production and resources sectors, ”he said.

The volatility of the prices of the goods also presents a significant risk, the fluctuations of the global and mineral energy prices that can affect the export revenues in Indonesia.

He added: “In view of these factors, the commercial surplus of Indonesia is expected to gradually decrease during 2025, while we are facing external risks in progress.”

Commercial data will be one of the key indicators that Bank Indonesia will consider when deciding on its interest rate policy on March 19.

Analysts suggest that broadening the current account deficit can limit the camera for a rate reduction, given the global uncertainties that have an impact on capital entries.

Pardeul Bank Permaata predicts that by the end of 2025, the central bank rate will increase to 5.75 percent, Rupeiah is expected to vary between 16,200 and 16,600 Rupiah on the American dollar.