Can Michigan State spoil Indiana’s undefeated season?

As we hit November in college football, seasons reach a breaking point.

For some teams, the pressure of the College Football Playoff gets bigger with each passing week, but can that lead to underdog betting opportunities? Here are two live underdogs who can turn the CFP race upside down Saturday in Week 10 action.

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

After getting smoked by Oregon on the road, Illinois is no longer the upstart Big Ten team the pundits love, and instead it’s Minnesota!

The Golden Gophers are winners of three straight games, a wind-damaged game against USC, a close call at UCLA and a blowout win against Maryland. Call me skeptical that this Minnesota team is a wagon that can go on the road and win by a margin against an Illinois offense that is top third in the country in EPA/Game with a tougher schedule.

While Illinois has struggled against its elite competition through the air, this group can test an overrated Minnesota secondary.

It all stems from the Golden Gophers’ lack of pressure, ranking 71st in pass rush this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

If Altmyer has time, he’s been elite all year. When kept clean, Altmyer completes two-thirds of his passes with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. When under pressure, completes 50% of one-touch passes.

PICK: Illinois +130

The Rebels have been an underdog this season, going under the final total in seven of eight games in 2024. The team’s offense has been elite, but the defense has far exceeded expectations. Furthermore, with injuries mounting on the offensive side of the ball, the team struggled to get on the scoreboard in SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points in four contests.

The team will travel to Fayetteville to face Arkansas, which has been vulnerable on big passing plays, but has also featured a strong defensive line that can put the Rebels in obvious losses. The Razorbacks’ defense ranks 38th in EPA/Play in early possessions and 36th in average third-and-fourth down success rate. Ole Miss struggled on third down against expectations, ranking just 49th in third-and-fourth down success rate.

Meanwhile, we saw Arkansas execute a heavy-handed script against Tennessee in a stunning upset a few weeks ago, and can we see something similar here?

Arkansas is an elite rushing unit, top 10 in the country in field goal percentage. Additionally, the team has been fantastic at extending drives, converting 48.5% on third downs, which is 12th in the nation.

I like the Hogs to be a running dog in this one and keep it within scoring range and possibly pull off the upset.

PICK: Arkansas (+220)

The Hoosiers’ undefeated season is starting to reach a breaking point. While the team is elite, it’s starting to get a little unlucky in variation plays, including forcing turnovers at an unsustainable clip. The Hoosiers forced 14 turnovers and had a pick-6 to start the game against Washington.

I’m still curious to see how IU handles falling behind on the scoreboard, something the team hasn’t faced all season so far. Can Michigan State get off to a strong start under head coach Jonathan Smith to put some scoreboard pressure on the Hoosiers?

Michigan State’s offense has plenty of upside with the emergence of freshman Nick Marsh, but has been plagued by turnovers all season, turning it over at a bottom-20 rate in the nation. However, the team has done a good job of keeping the program in the top half of the nation in passing rate and yards per game.

Meanwhile, the defensive line is the unit’s strength, ranking in the top 35 in defensive line yards and EPA/Rush. If Rourke has thumb issues and the Hoosiers’ passing attack sinks, this can be a struggle on offense.

It’s included in the number, so this isn’t a crazy value bet, but I think Michigan State is an underdog this weekend at home.

PICK: Michigan State +225

Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all your college football bets betstamp @rw33

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.