What I learned from German elections that will bring changes to the leading power of the EU

BERLIN -Germany faces the second change of leader in less than four years after the head of the central-right opposition, Friedrich Merz, won Sunday electionswhich registered an increase for a far -right party and a stinging defeat for Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

After collapse Of the three -part government of Scholz, in November, now it is up to Merz to restore stability in the most populated country of the European Union and traditional political weight, which also has the largest economy of the continent.

Merz is facing a difficult task. But it could have been worse

Merz It has a realistic option to form a government: a social coalition -Scholz Democrats. Its Union block and its center-left rival have 328 places combined in Parliament with 630 seats.

He says he hopes to do the transaction until Easter. This is a challenging time interval: possible partners will have to reconcile contrasting proposals for Revitalization of the economywhich it has decreased In the last two years and for the border irregular migration – A problem that Merz has pushed it hard during the campaign. This will probably require diplomacy and preparation to make compromises that have often not been obvious in recent weeks.

It is still a much lighter task than it could have been. For several hours on Sunday night, it was likely that Merz should add a second center-left partner, ecological green, to provide a parliamentary majority.

Germany’s traditional weights erode further

The Union and Social Democrats were difficulties after the Second World War. But their support has been eroded for at least two decades, because the political landscape became more fragmented. Their combined Display Sunday It has been the weakest since the post -war Federal Republic was founded in 1949.

Social -Democrats had the worst post -war with only 16.4% of votes. The Union had the second worst of 28.5%. This is only the second time that the winning party voted less than 30%; The first one was in 2021.

Geographic division: Extreme right leads to the east

The far right side, anti-immigration Alternative to Germanyor AFD, it appeared as the most powerful party in the communist and less prosperous country. Who cemented his primacy in a region that was long for a long time and where he won The first state elections Last year.

Other parties have been stronger in just a few eastern constituencies outside Berlin. In the west of Germany, which represents most of the country’s population, AFD drew Merz’s Union and sometimes other parties, but still lowered on the road to 20.8% of the votes at national level, the highest score post -war for a far -right party.

Young voters lead a heavy rebirth

While AFD has obtained the highest earnings, Left party made the most unexpected. The party appeared towards the electoral forgetfulness at the beginning of the campaign, but brought a resounding return to take 8.8% of the votes.

The left party has appealed to young voters, with very liberal positions in social and migration issues and a high tax policy, supported by a skilled socialization campaign.

Benefited from polarization during the campaign after a motion Merz put in Parliament asking for more migrants to be returned to the border. Merz’s conservatives have long refused to work with the left party, so there was no perspective to put it in the chancellor.

Ukraine can still expect German support

Merz was a firm supporter of Ukraine Ca opposes the invasion of Russia. He wrote on Monday on the social network X that “more than ever, we have to put Ukraine in a position of strength.” He added that “for a correct peace, the country that is attacked must be part of the peace negotiations.”

Germany became the second largest part of Ukraine Supplier of weapons After the United States under Scholz. Merz sometimes criticized the government that came out for doing too littleappealing in particular for Germany to provide long -term cruise missiles to Kiev. Scholz refused to do that.

Merz, just like Scholz, has been tightened so far if Germany could contribute to a Possible peacekeeping forcesuggesting that the discussion is premature.

Where Scholz was wrong

Scholz gave a narrow victory in 2021, after presenting as the safest pair of hands available.

But the agenda of his government was rapidly supported by the Ukraine war and the energy and inflation crises. His coalition has become notorious for the time for fighting and weak communication. Scholz recently suggested that he may have had to finish it sooner than he did.

Scholz looked for another unlikely return. But too many voters, and even some of his own partyHe had cooled down the unpopular chancellor.