The results of the German elections show significant changes in voters

An analysis of electoral data in Germany shows that Sunday’s vote was historian for several reasons. Five key observations show how the country’s policy changes.

The German parliamentary elections on Sunday have attracted an unusually strong interest for the country. The rate of participation of the voters was 82.5%, the highest digit since reunification. A look at historical comparisons and data from the Poles of opinion helps to understand the results – and illuminates some of the reasons behind the voters’ decisions.

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East is heading toward the far right – and AFD has obtained his first victories in the West

Map of Sunday results, showing the most powerful parts In the 299 electoral districtsshows a divided country. The right-wing alternative for the German party, known as AFD, is now dominant in the east, while the combined center-right-democratic unit and the Christian social union ticket wins in the West. This trend was already obvious in June last year During the elections of the European ParliamentAnd now it continues. However, what is new is that, for the first time, AFD has also become the strongest force in some Western German Electoral Districities. In the cities of Kaiserslautern and Gelsenkirchen, for example, the far right party won the most “second votes”-in which voters were asked to vote for a political party, rather than a specific candidate.

The red of the Social Democratic Party, or SPD, has almost completely disappeared from the map, as opposed to the 2021 federal elections. The central-left party has won several districts in the Ruhr region and in the northern German cities, such as Hamburg, Bremen and Hannover.

Four years ago, SPD and the Greens largely divided the electoral districts of Berlin. In contrast, the Sunday elections were dominated by the CDU and the left party, becoming for the first time the strongest force in the Marzahn district. An east-west division is obvious here on a small scale, even if the districts do not match the former division of the city. The CDU is strong in the former West Berlin, while the left party took largely of the East Berlin districts that it won before 2021.

SPD SPD decreases because it is no longer reliable to fight for social justice

Right to the end, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hopes for a surprise victory for his social – democrats – just like the last time. This year it proved to be different. With only 16.4% of the final vote, SPD registered the worst result of World War II. Moreover, for the first time in the national parliamentary elections, AFD has now obtained more support than SPD.

There are many reasons for this Debacle. The decisive factor is likely to have been the fact that – unlike 2021 – the problems traditionally associated with CDU/CSU, such as internal security, migration and economic growth, were particularly important for this year’s voters. According to polls, climate issues were a decisive factor for only 12% of respondents, compared to 22% in 2021. Moreover, only 18% said that social welfare problems are the most important for them, decreasing by 10 percentage points from the last elections.

However, bitter news for SPD continued. While many voters indicated that social assistance problems were less relevant to them this time, today’s voters are also less likely to see socially -Democrats as the most capable actors in this field.

This problem is particularly important for younger voters – and now they are more likely to vote for the left party than for Social – Democrats.

Young people are attracted to the political edge and help the left party make a comeback

A clear winner at Sunday’s election was the left party. Last year, when the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (known in Germany as BSW) separated from the left party, some saw the older party as at the end. However, the left obtained significant earnings on Sunday, taking almost 9% of votes at national level. This result was largely due to the young generation. Among people under 25, about 25% voted for the left. This put the party first and foremost among the young voters.

AFD followed in second place. Unlike the left party, however, the AFD voting share among people under 25 is approximately according to its general result.

The comparison with the 2021 federal choices is striking. At that time, the Green and Pro-Business Free Democrath side were still the two most popular parties of those under the age of 25. Both clearly lost ground in this age group. This is likely to have cost FDP its entrance to Bundestag, because it was the strongest in this age group four years ago. In accordance with German electoral legislation, a party must obtain at least 5% of national votes to enter the Parliament.

The success of CDU is due to support among the elderly as well as its assumed economic skill

However, a choice can be won even without young voters, especially since only a seventh of the eligible voters in Germany are under 30. On the other hand, 40% of eligible voters are 60 years old or older. In addition, the rates of participation of voters are higher among the elderly. This demographic served as a basis for CDU’s victory.

The success of the CDU/CSU group in the combined center, often called the Union, can also be explained by analyzing the most important problems for voters this year. In the post office polls, voters have most often mentioned problems of internal security, immigration and economy. For these problems, voters are most likely to trust CDU/CSU to find a solution.

Voters are dissatisfied with leading politicians and instead vote on the basis of problems

In the weeks preceding the elections, much of the focus of the campaign was placed on individual politicians. Finally, however, the candidates themselves seemed not to be the decisive factor in the public voting decisions. The voters made their choices mainly based on problems. This was valid even for voters of the BSW party, who is named after his leader, Sahra Wagenknecht.

Apparently, many voters were dissatisfied with the leading candidates. Only a minority of Germans believes that the leader of CDU Friedrich Merz, the leader of SPD, Olaf Scholz, the leader of Verdet Robert Habeck or the AFD leader, Alice Weidel, would make good chancellors. The Chancellor’s candidates also marked the weak questions about the satisfaction of the voters with their political work. Thus, a count seems to be related to the current generation of leading politicians.

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