The results explained as Friedrich Merz is moving for Europe

Friedrich Merz, the presumptive chancellor of Germany, has confirmed He will look for a coalition with the social -democrat SPD after Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won the elections of February 23, Toping the survey with 28.5%. Although SPD has gone from winning the latest elections to a low record result of 16.4% of the votes, it remains the only credible coalition partner for the presumptive chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz.

Among Merz’s first acts was a bold statement that his first priority is “the consolidation of Europe as soon as possible, so that, step by step, we can truly achieve independence from the US.”

Things could have looked different for Merz. If he had a small party, (Sahra Wagenknecht or BSW Alliance) won only 0.03% less from the vote, Merz should have found a third coalition partner. This would most likely mean to try to work with green. This would have been a much more difficult circle to suffer for the right in the center and an option that would have had a much higher risk of early government collapse, if they could have been even in the first place.

The far -right alternative for Germany (AFD) had a record result, which came in second place with a share of 20.8% of the vote. The mainstream parts, including CDU/CSU, have excluded any agreement with the far right, which AFD will now see as an opportunity. Another period of CDU/CSU-SPD governance at a time of economic challenges will allow the party to feel that it has a good opportunity to capitalize on the dissatisfaction and to increase.

The 2025 elections recorded a reduced voting action for CDU/CSU and SPD. It is noteworthy that none of the leaders of Volksparteien have once (“people’s parties”-with a cross-country call) was not popular. Merz came out best among them but on a scale from -5 to +5 For popularity, he obtained an average of exactly 0.

Worse was the situation of the center-right FDP, which collapsed from Parliament, obtaining only 4.3%, decreasing by 7.1 points. His leader, Christian Lindner, who brought the fall of the previous “traffic light” coalition between his own party, SPD and green, and announced the retirement from politics. The green, with a respectable result (11.6%, down by 3.1 points), will be prepared for an opposition spell.

The elections show a disinterested country, a long road from being at ease with itself. Observers are immediately hit by difference between the east and west of Germany. In the east, the far -right alternative for Germany (AFD) came first in all five states (except Berlin, which is an East and West mixture). In the West, with some exceptions, CDU/CSU was dominant.

This was obvious For some time, what concerns migration, as well as the feeling of being treated as second -class citizens determines support for the far right in the East. Now, the opposition to military support for Ukraine and general pessimism is also playing.

Age has proven another very significant division. Among those between the ages of 18 and 24, the left party obtained 25%, before AFD (21%). CDU/CSU took only 13%, and SPD 12%. Among those over 60, the image is reversed. CDU/CSU took 37%, and SPD 23%, while AFD lasted 15%, and left only 5%.

AFD leaders in a press conference/ — AFD celebrates its best result and chance to capitalize on the Government.
EPA/Christopher Neundorf

Left success, at least among young people, was the only big surprise of the elections. After a hot period who saw the departure of the leading figure Sahra Wagenknecht and her followers to form a separate, left party It seemed unlikely to meet the 5% votes’ share The threshold needed to enter Parliament until recently. An internal separation on Israel and Gaza also caused difficulties.

However, the left took advantage of the polarization caused by Friedrich Merz’s decision to press forward with a vote on Hardline policies towards asylum seekers, including more border checks and removing irregular migrants without processing an asylum application. . A SOCIAL SOCIAL SOCIAL CAMPANIA He also helped that the party’s common parliamentary leader Heidi Reichinnek helped.

Meanwhile, BSW has taken only 4.97% of national votes and will therefore have no places in Parliament. However, it is worth noting that the popularity of BSW has also been extremely unequal throughout the country and another example of a geographical division. While reserved at national level, its anti-migration, “anti-woke” and pro-resurrection policies, mixed with its support criticisms for Ukraine, was a more popular offer in the east, with results around 10 %, double the national average.

What now for Europe?

SPD claimed that it will not enter the government at any price. He suggested that he would put any coalition proposals for a vote between the party members as a way to try to exercise the lever over Merz. But indeed, the party has nowhere to go. There is no alternative to a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, apart from the early choices or a fundamental rethinking of the approach of the former AFD. None is an attractive perspective.

All parties are also aware of the extraordinary pressure from other European countries for Germany to bring together its act in the context of American President Trump and the need to support Ukraine. However, there are huge challenges to approach on the internal front. Merz has he was hired Tax discounts and higher defense expenses, but there is no clarity at all. The drastic discounts of well -being and other social expenses would probably be an “without walking” area. An option could be the elimination of the “debt brake” of Germany – constitutional restrictions on government loans. It’s something that Merz was reluctant to do but he had suggested He could consider him after the vote. This fundamental reform would need a two -thirds in both Parliament Houses, and if the additional funds were only for defense, it is possible that left and AFD to combine it.

Therefore, Germany’s choices give us a paradox: in some ways, the result is quite familiar, with an old Christian Christian who runs a coalition with SPD, another party with a long record in government and, indeed, with a perspective of German leadership in Europe. But it is also a deeply uncertain result. Germany is a country that is facing huge challenges: a slow growth, war in Europe and an American president that questions the key principles of the post -war transatlantic relationship. It is not clear how to make a ruling coalition that can agree on how to deal with these challenges and which can satisfy a strongly divided electorate. The turbulent times, in the country and on the continent can be well before.