The results of the German elections: coalitions, economics and extremism – the ascending battle for Friedrich Merz

Friedrich Merz’s victory in the German national elections marks a significant change in the country’s political landscape, but its way to form a stable government is full of challenges. From the coalition negotiations to the economic pressures and the growing influence of the extreme-right, Merz must navigate in a complex and uncertain environment if it becomes a chancellor.

The Union of the Center on the right-Right center of Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU), despite winning the national elections in Germany is facing difficulties in the formation of a stable government. His favorite coalition partner, social-democrats in the center-left (SPD), finished in third place and has significant policy differences, especially in terms of migration. If SPD cooperation fails, Merz should look for an alliance with green, still complicating negotiations due to ideological differences.

Coalition dilemmas

Despite the fact that he drove the Center-Right Union block to the victory, Merz is facing a difficult task in the formation of a majority government. His favorite coalition partner, social-democrats (SPD), has deep policy differences, especially in terms of migration, which could prevent negotiations. If SPD cooperation collapses, Merz can use green, but ideological differences in climatic policies and social issues could further complicate discussions.

Increased extreme right influence

The far -right alternative for Germany (AFD) obtained a historical end in second place, ensuring a minority of locking in the Parliament. While mainstream parties refuse to collaborate with AFD because of its extremist positions, its increasing influence could disrupt key politics, including constitutional reforms and defense expenses.

Economic pressures and political constraints

Germany’s economy is struggling with slow and increasing competition in China and the US. Merz expressed interest in the reform of the strict law of the debt brake, which limits government loans. However, the accomplishment of this will require a wide parliamentary support, which can be difficult, given the divided legislator. Without reforms, Merz will face challenges in financing the infrastructure, defense and social programs.

Transatlantic relationships and risk of foreign policy

Merz takes over the function in a moment of geopolitical uncertainty, with tensions involving the US, Russia and China. He questioned the US reliability as an ally, especially in the light of concerns about a potential peace agreement in Ukraine-Russia, under a presidency of Donald Trump. In addition, his criticisms of Washington’s commercial policies could tighten EU-US relationships.

Diplomatic controversies and political risks

Merz’s invitation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite an arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court (ICC), could lead to diplomatic tensions within the EU and beyond. His previous collaboration with AFD to a resolution related to migration has also damaged confidence with potential coalition partners, especially SPD. These political risks could weaken the ability to form and maintain a stable government.

Experience of leadership and challenges of government

Because Merz has no previous government experience, its ability to manage the coalition policy and to browse complex political negotiations remains uncertain. Its leadership will be tested while trying to provide a majority of work, implement key reforms and address internal and international challenges.