Drug Cartel struggles with US ties with Mexico and Central America

At the end of January, Donald Trump made serious accusations against the Mexican government, accusing him of working with cartels in hand to flood the US with irregular immigrants and drugs, such as synthetic opioid fentanyl. Trump says he will decide in early March if he will impose 25% rates for Mexican goods, which will only be raised when Mexico provides the border.

The rates could dive Mexico in a recession, which is why President Claudia Sheinbaum defends themselves with fierce against Trump’s accusations. She fought that, since taking over the position in October, her government intensified the fight against gangs and had over 10,000 arrested suspects. In addition, he has now sent 10,000 soldiers to the border to calm Donald Trump.

However, bilateral relationships between the two countries remain seriously tense. Of the eight drug cartels that Trump classified as terrorist organizations at the end of January, six have their origin in Mexico. These include Sinaloa Cartel, which is considered the largest fentanel producer. The list also includes Mara Salvatruha (MS-13), which is active in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and in the Aragua Venezuelean train.

“We have to start treating them like ISIS,” Trump’s national security counselor, Mike Waltz, asked. He referred to a law adopted after the attacks of September 11, 2001, which allows the president to carry out armed forces against terrorist organizations abroad. This would technically allow Trump to perform bombing or implement special forces in Mexico.

In Central America, the use of US military operations would bring the memories of a dark chapter in history. During the Cold War, the US used a brutal force in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala to combat the left guerrillas and their supporters. US forces also invaded Panama, finally overthrowing President Manuel Noriega in 1990. Although Noriega helped the American drug application (DA) in the fight against Central American guerrillas, he also carried out business with Pablo Escobar’s Colombian Cartel.

Washington’s “Kingpin” strategy

The killing of Escobar in 1993 was part of the so-called “Kingpin Strategy” to DA, the disassembly of drug bands by eliminating their most prominent leaders. As in the case of Escobar, however, the 2016 arrest of “El Chapo” Guzmán and the July 2024 arrest of his associate in the Sinaloa Mexico cartel, “El Mayo” Zambada, did not bring hope. In contrast, studies have shown that such operations only lead to fragmentation of cartels and bloody struggles of internal power. The result is more violence from a growing number of drug bands.

For Armando Vargas from the security of Think Tank México evalua in Mexico City, the arrest “El Mayo” smiles on the Mexican territory, without knowing the Mexican government proves that the US does not trust Mexico. “Organized crime cannot be successful without a form of support from state actors,” says Vargas. The US is well aware of this, he says.

El Mayo’s statements to the American judicial system could prove an explosive for Mexican policy. At the end of February, El Mayo asked the Mexican government to arrange its return to Mexico. Otherwise, he threatened, his statements could lead to the collapse of bilateral relationships. Apparently has access to sensitive information.

In 2024, the media reported that the DEA investigated the then president Andrés Manuel López Obrador because he had received money from the Sinaloa cartel during the 2006 elections. Although there is no difficult evidence in this regard, there were also rumors about his respect with Cartel. The case still strengthens the weak reputation of Mexican politics in the United States.

In 2024, the local judicial system sentenced it to Genaro García Luna, who was the Mexican Security Minister from 2006 to 2012, to 38 years in prison for collaborating with the Sinaloa Cartel. The arrest of the former Minister of Defense, Salvador Cienfuegos, in the US, who would have protected the criminal prosecution cards, has already triggered a diplomatic crisis in 2020. Finally, he was released after President López Obrador threatened to conclude Mexico’s cooperation with DA.

Mexico’s government is facing a dilemma, says Vargas. Peace in the country cannot be obtained by force, he says. The real peace depends on the goodwill of the bands to conclude agreements with each other and the government to renounce violence. The US disapproves this strategy, however, as the cases of García Luna and Cienfuegos show.

Irregular course with Honduras

The example of Honduras shows how difficult the cooperation can be in the fight against drugs. Business, politics and security apparatus in the country are deeply penetrating from organized crime. Located halfway between South America and the US, the country is considered an ideal transit for drugs, local cocaine production and growing.

In 2008, then President Manuel Zelaya was targeted by the American judicial system. Zelaya and his brothers were also investigated by Honduras authorities for alleged links with Mexican and Colombian cards. It is not clear to what extent the Obama administration was involved in the eventual overthrow of Zelaya by the military in 2009. However, the hondural organizers of the coup were also suspected of being related to organized crime. Zelaya’s successor son, Porfirio Lobo Sosa, was arrested by DEA in 2015 and sentenced to 24 years in prison in 2017.

Sosa’s successor, Juan Orlando Hernández, has long been considered as an ideal partner in the US fight, especially since we began to extradite cartel leaders in the US in 2014. In addition, Hernández was friends with Donald Trump. However, his brother Tony Hernández was arrested in the US in 2018 and later sentenced to life imprisonment. He would have smuggled tons of cocaine in the United States. His trial revealed that President Hernández was the head of the band.

At the 2021 elections, the Biden administration, therefore, supported Xiomara Castro, the wife of former President Zelaya, who promised to extradite Juan Orlando Hernández to the United States. Hernández was later delivered to the US in early 2022. Two years later, he was sentenced to 45 years in prison. However, the American partnership with the Castro government suddenly ended when new evidence appeared against Castro’s husband, former Zelay President, and his family, pointing to alleged links with Venetian drug bands.

In the middle of 2024, a 2013 video appeared by showing Zelay’s brother accepting $ 650,000 from a Honduran cartel. President Castro has threatened to conclude the extradition treaty in the light of American investigations, but withdrew this threat last week under the pressure of the Trump administration.

El Salvador’s hard position against Mara Salvatruha

As in Honduras and Guatemala, Mara Salvatruha (MS-13), which Trump classifies as a terrorist organization, is also active in El Salvador. He terrorized the population for decades before President Nayib Bukele declared his war in Cartel in 2019. He repeatedly expanded the emergency state of 2022, suspending fundamental rights in the country. So far, Bukele has had around 83,000 arrested people, NGOs and Biden Government accuse him of serious human rights.

In the meantime, The The investigation platform el Faro reported on secret negotiations between Bukele’s government and Mara Salvatruha. Bukes would have protected the band leaders and wanted terrorism and drug trafficking in the American judicial system. As a result, Bukele employees were sanctioned by the Biden administration, which led to a break with Washington.

With the inauguration of Trump, the situation for Bukele has relieved. A self -proclaimed supporter of Trump, Bukele even said US Secretary Marco Rubio that the country will take migrants without documents and condemn American citizens to his prisons. Trump himself praised Bukele’s efforts in the fight against organized crime. Therefore, Bukele probably should not worry for the Pentagon to take measures against Mara Salvatruha from El Salvador.

Trump’s questionable threats

If Donald Trump actually uses the army against cartels remains questionable. In the case of Mexico, this step would destroy relationships with the most important commercial partner in America. And Trump depends on Mexico to combat human smuggling and drug trafficking. The US -friendly countries, such as Panama, Costa Rica and Guatemala, have already promised Trump that they will take measures against gangs and strengthen border checks.

Trump’s threats to use military force are also likely to convince Washington antagonists, such as Nicaragua, Venezuela and Honduras, to repatriate citizens who are deported from the United States. The fact that governments like the Bukele administration in El Salvador violate human rights in their fight against gangs does not seem to matter to Trump.

To effectively combat drug cartels, other means would be needed. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, for example, asked Trump to fight the sales networks and financial flows in the US and introduce prevention and treatment for drug addicts there. In addition, she asked the US to address modern weapons smuggling in the US to bands. Experts agree with Sheinbaum. However, Trump has not yet taken any steps in this direction.

The last items

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