Trump’s stopping for military aid will affect Ukraine’s defense. But they could not be fatal

LONDON – US has been Ukraine’s greatest military supporter since then Russia’s widespread invasion It started three years ago. suspension of that help of The Trump administration It does not mean that Ukraine’s defenses will collapse quickly.

But it is a major blow that threatens to remove some of the most formidable weapons in the arsenal of Ukraine’s battlefield and to raise the pressure on Kiev to accept a peace agreement.

Here is a look at the decision and its implications.

How much of Ukraine’s help comes from the US?

The United States gave Ukrainians Over $ 180 billion in Russia’s assistance launched a complete war on February 24, 2022, including over $ 66.5 billion in military aid.

Washington offers about 20% of Ukraine’s military deliveries, and the fifth includes the most lethal and important equipment, including longer -range missiles and Patriot air defense systems that can play the most powerful Russian projectiles.

US military assistance also exceeds a lot of weapons and ammunition.

Ukrainian troops are based on satellite communication systems provided by Elon Musk’s starlink to communicate on the first line and on American intelligence to track Russian troops and select targets for Ukrainian attacks. If the US ceases to share data from satellites and other assets, it would seriously affect Ukraine’s ability to return to Russia, and the other Ukraine allies have no resources to fill the goal.

“Many will depend on what is covered in American suspension,” said Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy General Defense Director of Think-Tank Russi. “Will they suspend all the technical assistance in Ukraine? This would have a more dramatic impact, faster than simply stop the weapon pipe. “

Why did Trump cut?

The White House said the US “interrupts and reviews” its help in Ukraine to “ensure it contributes to a solution.” The order will remain in force until Trump determines that Ukraine has demonstrated a commitment for peace negotiations with Russia.

The decision comes days after an explosive meeting With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which Trump and US Vice President JD Vance said the leader of Ukraine did not express enough gratitude for American support.

How will the battlefield change?

The American movement will not have an immediate impact on the battlefield, where Kiev’s forces are struggling to stop a tireless Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian forces slowed the Russian progress along the front line of about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles), where Russia slowly gains ground with a huge human and material cost.

The break in aid will weaken the defense of the air and reach Ukraine’s ability to reach Russian targets behind the front lines.

Alexander Kots, a Russian war blogger, said that for Ukraine, “the suspension of American aid is unpleasant, but not deadly.”

He said that while Ukraine’s European allies can complete some of the gaps and provide artillery systems, have no alternatives to US air defense systems and longer -range himars rocket systems, which can reach targets up to 300 kilometers (200 miles).

Ukraine is already low on rockets for Patriot systems, provided by Americans, which are crucial for the defense of cities by Russian air attacks, according to Patrick Bry, war expert at the Bath University of the UK.

“The problem is that much of what the US offers are the things that Europe cannot, and other countries cannot offer high quality short-work,” he said.

Ukraine has stocks of artillery shells and other ammunition and has raised the domestic production of drones, which are now among the most important weapons in the war. It is estimated that a little over half of the military hardware used by Ukraine is an domestic produced.

Chalmers, the Russian expert, said that the Ukrainians built their defense production and “innovate at an incredible rate due to the pressure in which they are.”

“I think they will survive enough,” he said. “But it is a material shot and it is also a challenge for Europe.”

Other Ukraine allies can grow?

A Summit in London Sunday aimed to achieve European leaders To intensify and place Ukraine in the best possible position before the potential peace discussions.

The UK has announced that it will use £ 1.6 billion ($ 2 billion) in export financing to provide 5,000 air defense missiles. The European Union has proposed a plan of 800 billion euros ($ 841 billion) to strengthen the defenses of the EU nations and offer Ukraine Military Muscles.

But Samir Puri, the director of the Center for Governance and Global Security in international business, Think Tank Chatham House, said that European and American aid is interwoven.

“This has always been a common effort,” he said. “The US offers a lot, Europeans give a lot. You remove the Americans from that common effort and … only a huge component of the structure is missing. “