Bitcoin Taurus Square in danger as a US recession and rates

In the first three months of his presidency, Donald Trump lit up commercial tensions by announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and the result was unexpected disorders on American and global markets.

The fall in the rates was relatively fast, and the impact was felt on the crypto -critic market. Since March 8, the US president has departed from some plans to impose rates on certain Mexican and Canadian goods – another twist of the Rollercoaster of the US trade policy that continues to shake markets.

Singapore Crypto Trading Firm QCP Capital said in a note. “The crypto markets this week were nothing with a roller coaster. With the macro conditions in the flow, Crypto remains closely related to actions, the action of prices reflecting wider economic changes. “

Wild sketches emphasize volatility in front for cryptocurrencies seen as high-risk assets, Trump administration tests the boundaries of economic and external policy and serves as a caution story, because uncertainty penetrates markets.

In a post about X, the former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said This tariff policy (…) has already removed 2 trillion dollars from the value of the US stock market, “and Summers suggested that these measures are” poorly designed “and that they will undermine US competitiveness.

“It is no wonder that Wall Street’s gauge is up with one third.”

*Volatility Index (VIX) Price action. Source: Yahoo! Finance.*

While the tariffs and advertisements of Trump’s market movement can create a feeling of imminent ladies, their impact on the future crypto sector remains in question. If a commercial war weakens the US dollar by inflation, Bitcoin could actually benefit, Eugene Epstein, the head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp. Investors that run away from the Fiat coins that can be transformed into crypto, and if the nations hit by the tariff devalue their coins in response, Bitcoin could serve as a vehicle for capital flight.

Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin trades 24/7 and reacts instantly to macroeconomic changes, which makes it extremely vulnerable to the feeling of risk. “In the sense of feeling, the main factors of Crypto will continue to be the status of a federal crypto reserve, as well as the general risk feeling. If American actions continue to decrease, it is difficult to imagine a crypto -power market, at least in the short term, ”said Epstein.

Many of the Crypto -Cripto community were expecting Trump’s return to the White House at Sends Bitcoin increasingAnd initially, it happened – increasing from $ 69,374 on election day at a record of $ 108,786 until the inauguration day. But since then, BTC has decreased, lowering below $ 80,000 by the end of February and again in March. The weakness of the prices comes in spite of the pro-cultic position of the administration, including plans for a strategic crypto reserve and market structure reforms.

Bitcoin Spot cumulative flows have reached record levels after Trump’s victory, investors pouring over $ 10 billion in these instruments, according to the elections DATA By Farside investors. However, the increasing concerns regarding the potential tariff war seem to have affected the feeling of the market and, by extension, on cryptocurrency.

Since the beginning of February, Bitcoin ETFs have observed significant flows, while uncertainty takes place on the wider economic landscape. At the same time, safe refuge assets like gold, they actually have replied positively Against the background of the tariff war.

Spot Bitcoin Etf Flows. Source: Farside investors.

This is not the first time that President Trump has performed tariff threats as a negotiation chip, and some traders believe that the market will adapt to focus on the foundation on the unpleasant use of tariffs as a way to force policy changes.

Therefore, some industry traders choose not to rely on their strategies only on rates. For Bob Walden, the head of ABRA transactions, rates are “only a title” that influences the feeling of short -term investors, but does not change the fundamental conditions of the market.

“For me, the rates are a red herring. It’s something Trump uses as a negotiation chip and I don’t think it means something for Crypto. Initially, they caused an extraction-tariffs caught a market that was for a long time and supervised in search of an interesting movement-this was a correlation, not causality. ”

Walden indicates Trump’s fiscal austerity program as a true engine of crypto markets.

“This is how everyone looks in the Tradfi space. Rates are just another piece in the fiscal austerity trade that happens on global markets – this is actually what more influences Crypto, because fiscal austerity means less money from there to implement. “

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal consultancy or investment. The opinions, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the only ones of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the opinions and opinions of Co Co.